Retail Savings & Investments in Germany: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Sector Impact

Retail Savings & Investments in Germany: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Sector Impact

Summary

The Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) outbreak, dubbed COVID-19, is first and foremost a human tragedy, affecting millions of people globally. The contagious Coronavirus, which broke out at the close of 2019, has led to a medical emergency across the world, with the World Health Organization officially declaring the novel Coronavirus a pandemic on March 11, 2020.

Fears surrounding the impact of COVID-19 have significantly impacted the global economy, with key stock markets across the world losing 20-50% of their value year-to-date. Many economists and institutions have cut their forecasts, with many experts predicting the potential onset of recessionary environments.

A similar trend is expected in Germany as well, with its economic growth expected to register a dip in the first quarter of 2020. The real GDP growth rate for Germany is expected to enter negative growth this year, meaning one of the largest economies in the Eurozone is almost certainly in recession already. The decline will have an adverse impact on all sectors including retail investments.

This report focuses on the impact of the Coronavirus outbreak on the German economy and the country’s retail savings and investment market. It also highlights the measures adopted by the government to combat COVID-19. Based on our proprietary datasets, the snap shot contrasts GlobalData’s pre-COVID-19 forecasts and revised forecasts of total retail bond, deposits, equities and mutual funds holdings in terms of value and growth rates. It also analyses the effects on HNW wealth, examining the importance of different industries as a contributor to HNW wealth.

Scope

- German retail savings and investments are forecast to grow by 1.4% over the course of 2020 as the economy has come to a standstill thanks to the impacts of COVID-19. Retail equity and mutual fund holdings are expected to take the brunt of the economy’s slowdown, with respective declines of 22.6% and 12.4% anticipated.
- Retail deposits and bond holdings, on the other hand, are set to fare better than initially expected courtesy of a flight to safety away from risk assets. However, more pronounced declines in risk assets holdings are expected to result in a total retail holdings forecast in 2020 that is 1.1 percentage points (pp) lower than forecast before the onset of COVID-19.
- The effects on the different segments that make up the high-net-worth (HNW) market will be disproportionate. The financial services and investments sector, which is the largest contributor to German HNW wealth, has already taken a significant hit, as indicated by the 41% decrease of the DAXsector All Banks index since the beginning of the year. Thanks to a steep fall in global demand and supply chain interruptions, the manufacturing sector - the third most important contributor to HNW wealth - has also taken a significant hit.
- The healthcare sector - the second largest contributor to HNW wealth - is being less severely impacted, with the DAXsector Pharma & Healthcare declining by a comparatively lower 14% since the beginning of 2020.

Reasons to Buy

- Make strategic decisions using top-level revised forecast data on the German retail savings and investments industry.
- Understand the key market trends, challenges, and opportunities in the German retail savings and investments industry.
- Receive a comprehensive insight into the retail liquid asset holdings in Germany, including deposits, mutual funds, equities, and bonds.