Global Risk Report Quarterly Update: Q4 2019

Global Risk Report Quarterly Update: Q4 2019

Summary

Global Risk Report is based on GlobalData Country Risk Index (GCRI) which is a unique country risk-rating model that determines the existing and future level of country risk by assessing various qualitative and quantitative factors. The index is formulated to help firms prepare their global business strategies on the basis of historical developments in an economy and also their future expectations.

The Country Risk Index incorporates the latest available macroeconomics, political, social, technological, environmental and legal data from a range of recognized national and international statistical sources, and incorporates proprietary data from GlobalData Economics Research. The model also features expert analytical judgment from in-house economists and takes into account their insights and opinions. By applying a robust approach to assessing risk, GlobalData analysts ensure that strategists have an effective tool to assess current trends and risks facing the economies across the globe.

The tenth update version of GlobalData Country Risk Index (GCRI) Q4 2019 ranks Singapore at the top followed by Switzerland and Sweden. 33 countries were identified in the very low risk zone, 27 countries in the low risk zone, 40 countries under manageable risk, 28 countries under high risk and eight countries in the very high risk zone in GCRI Q4 2019.

Scope

- Asia-Pacific has the second lowest risk score after Europe in the Q4 2019 update of the GCRI. The region’s risk score decreased marginally from 39.7 in 2019Q2 to 39.4 in 2019Q4. Despite this, risks remain in the form of geopolitical tensions, controversial policies of the Indian and Hong Kong government, spillover from conflict between Iran and the US, and increasing occurrence of environmental catastrophes affecting the countries of the region.
- The European region remained the lowest risk region in the Q4 2019 update of the global risk index owing to its strong economic fundamentals. The robust growth in Central and Eastern European nations along with certainty over Brexit, de-escalation of trade dispute between the US and China and improvement in export orders portray a marginally better picture of the region in 2020 and have helped in significantly reducing the overall risk of the region in Q4 of 2019.
- The Americas is the second highest risk region, according to the GCRI Q4 2019 update, with a regional risk score of 44.4 out of 100. In the US, the division between Republicans and Democrats escalated after the impeachment of President Trump by the House of Representatives, on the grounds of interfering with the 2020 election process.
- The Middle East and Africa (MEA) is the highest risk region according to the GCRI 2019 Q4 update, with a regional risk score of 48.76 out of 100, down compared to 49.02 on the GCRI 2019 Q2 update and up compared to 47.59 in the GCRI 2018 Q4 update. The region continues to be plagued by social conflict and geopolitical turmoil.

Reasons to buy

- Global Risk Report is based on GlobalData Country Risk Index (GCRI) which is a unique country risk-rating model that determines the existing and future level of country risk by assessing various qualitative and quantitative factors.
- The index is formulated to help firms prepare their global business strategies on the basis of historical developments in an economy and also their future expectations.
- The Country Risk Index incorporates the latest available macroeconomics, political, social, technological, environmental and legal data from a range of recognized national and international statistical sources, and incorporates proprietary data from GlobalData Economics Research.
- The model also features expert analytical judgment from in-house economists and takes into account their insights and opinions.
- By applying a robust approach to assessing risk, GlobalData analysts ensure that strategists have an effective tool to assess current trends and risks facing the economies across the globe.